Thursday, December 16, 2010

A Few Good Men – The Heisman Trophy winners and the NFL over the last 50 years.


Of the last 50 Heisman winners 23 have been quarterbacks,  24Running backs , and 3 receivers (including Charles Woodson). Obviously it is no indication of future pro success. While we shouldn’t judge the winners based on their pro careers, because the Heisman is a college award, I wanted to look at how good or bad Heisman winners have done. I broke the winners into six groups. All-Time Greats, Good, OK, Busts, Didn’t make it, Too Early to Judge. The results are interesting and mixed. I ranked:
·         9 as Greats (2 QB, 5 RB, 2 WR/CB),
·         8 as Good (3 QB, 5 RB),
·          9 as OK (9 RB),
·         13 as Busts (10 QB, 2 RB, 1 WR),
·         6 as Did Not Make its (5 QB, 1 RB via Leukemia)
·         4 as Too Early to Judge (3 QB, 1 RB)
From this we can learn, don’t draft Heisman quarterbacks. The two greats are Staubach and Testaverde, not in the echelon of best of all time discussions. 15 out of 20 quarterbacks never played significantly in the NFL. And to think Ryan Leaf didn’t make the list.

All-Time Greats:
1.      Roger Staubach – Navy – 1963 – 2x Super Bowl Champ, 6 Pro-Bowls
2.      OJ Simpson – USC – 1968 – 5 Pro Bowls and 11,236 yds and great 1973 season.
3.      Tony Dorsett – Pittsburgh – 1976 – 1x Super Bowl Champ, 4 Pro Bowls – 12,739 yds and 92 TDs
4.      Marcus Allen – USC – 1981 – 16 yrs – 6x Pro Bowl, 12,243 rushing yds and 142 TDs. (most ever at time)
5.      Herschel Walker – Georgia – 1982 – Best USFL player ever with over 5,600 rushing yds in 3 yrs. 11 yrs pro had 8,225 rushing yds. Got name besmirched in the horrible trade by Cowboys to Vikings in 1989. Never played well again.
6.      Vinny Testaverde – Miami – 1986 – This is a tough one because Vinny never won the big games in the playoffs, but he ranks 7th all time in passing and touchdowns with 46,223 yds and 275 TDs. Those are some pretty impressive stats.
7.      Tim Brown – Notre Dame – 1987 – The second greatest receiver ever behind Jerry Rice and played with some lesser quarterbacks until Rich Gannon. 100 TD catches and 14,934 yds.
8.      Barry Sanders – Oklahoma State – 1988 – He made the Lions relevant for 12 years. Forget stats with him just youtube.
9.      Charles Woodson – Michigan – 1997 – 6x Pro Bowler, 2009 Defensive Player of the Year. One of the best shut down corners of last 30 years. 47 Career Interceptions.
Good:
1.      Jim Plunkett – Stanford – 1970 – Career as starter 72-72, but won 2 Super Bowls as Raider.
2.      Earl Campbell – Texas – 1977 – 8 yrs – 9,407 yds and 74 TDs and awesome highlights.
3.      George Rogers – South Carolina – 1980 – 7 yrs, 7176 rushing yds and 54 TDs
4.      Mike Rozier – Nebraska – 1983 – 2 years in USFL with 3,171 rush yds. 7 yrs in NFL with 4,462 yds and 30 TDs.
5.      Doug Flutie – Boston College – 1984 – Played in Canada too long to rank as really an impact NFL player, but played well with Bills. NFL career 14,715 yds and 86 TDS and punted an extra point.
6.      Eddie George – Ohio State – 1995 – Shortened NFL career because the Oilers/Titans rode him to over 300 carries a year for 8 years. 10,441 yds and 78 TDs. Never injured.
7.      Ricky Williams – Texas -1998 – Has his career on track after the whole running to India to study holistic weed incident. To date 9,740 rushing yds and 72 TDs. A really great career considering the guy lost his marbles for a few years in the middle.
8.      Carson Palmer – USC -2002 – 21,911 passing yds and 149 TDs. Looked like he was going to be much better prior to the knee injury in the 2005 playoffs. Is playing worse as time goes on, but has been starter for Bengals for 7 years.
OK:
1.      Mike Garrett – USC – 1965 – 9 years – 52.7 rush yds/gm for total of 5481 yds and 35 TDs.
2.      Steve Owens – Oklahoma – 1969 – 5 yrs – Fullback in NFL – 2451 yds and 20 TDs.
3.      John Cappelletti – Penn State – 1973 – 9 yrs – Fullback in NFL – 4184 total yds and 28 TDs
4.      Archie Griffin – Ohio State – 1974/1975 – 7 years – 4415 total yds and 13 TDs (could be a bust)
5.      Billy Sims – Oklahoma – 1978 – 5 yrs with Lions – 4515 rushing yrds and 42 TDs (could be moved up to good, but so short on playing time)
6.      Charles White – USC – 1979 – 8 yrs, 3,075 yds and 23 TDs
7.      Bo Jackson – Auburn – 1985. Bo knows, injuries suck.
8.      Ron Dayne – Wisconsin – 1999 – 7 yrs (6 times cut), 28 TDs and 3722 yds
9.      Reggie Bush – USC – 2005 – Has played decently, but never became the difference maker everyone expected him to be. 35 total TDs and 4000+ yds from line of scrimmage.
Busts:
1.      Terry Baker – Oregon State – 1962 – 0-1 Career record as Quarterback in 3 years.
2.      John Huarte – Notre Dame – 1964 – 19-48 career passing, 1 TD and 5 Int in 6 years.
3.      Steve Spurrier – Florida – 1966 – Career record as starter 13-24-1, 40 TDs and 60 Ints
4.      Desmond Howard – 1991 Michigan – Had one good Super Bowl with the Packers. Overall, 10 years, 15 total TDs.
5.      Pat Sullivan – Auburn – 1971 – Career record as starter 0-5, Career 5 TDs and 16 Int.
6.      Johnny Rodgers – Nebraska – 1972 – 2 years, 283 total yds and 0 TDs.
7.      Andre Ware – Houston – 1989 – 1,112 Passing yds, 5 TDs 8 Int, 3-3 record.
8.      Ty Detmer – BYU -1990 – 6,351 yds, 34 TDs, 35 Ints, over 9 seasons as a back up
9.      Rashaan Salaam – Colorado -1994 – 1,000 yds as rookie only 5 games after that. Ended up in the XFL.
10.  Danny Wuerffel – Florida – 1996 – Career pro highlight. MVP of World Bowl 2000 NFL Europe Championship with the Rhein Fire. He beat those damn Scottish Claymores.
11.  Chris Weinke – Florida State -2000 – 5 yrs – 2-18 as a starter.
12.  Matt Leinart – USC – 2004 – Seriously, you got cut from a team when the starter retired, so Derek Anderson and two undrafted rookies could start. You pretty much suck.
13.  Troy Smith – Ohio State – 2006 – Couldn’t beat out Kyle Boller in Baltimore, and just got replaced by Alex Smith in San Francisco. It doesn’t go up from there.
Did Not Make It:
1.      Ernie Davis – Syracuse – 1961 – Drafted #1, but got diagnosed with leukemia before game 1. One of the saddest stories ever. Would have been first black player for Redskins, last non-integrated team.
2.      Gary Beban – UCLA – 1967 – threw one pass in the NFL, I’ll count that as not making it.
3.      Gino Torreta – Miami – 1992 – Played in NFL Europe for Three Years.
4.      Charlie Ward – Florida State – 1993 – Played for the Knicks (who knows how NFL would have gone.) On a positive note, he started the Mourning/Jeff Van Gundy fight in the 97 playoffs.
5.      Eric Crouch – Nebraska – 2001 – played in NFL Europe for a while.
6.      Jason White – Oklahoma -2003 – We all knew he wasn’t going pro on those knees.
Too Early to Judge:
1.      Tim Tebow – Florida – 2007 – Assuming bust
2.      Sam Bradford – Oklahoma – 2008 – Assuming Good to Great
3.      Mark Ingram Jr. – Alabama – 2009 – Still in College
4.      Cam Newton – Auburn – 2010 – Less annoying black Tebow???

4 comments:

  1. Is Cam THAT bad of a passer? I haven't watched him play that much.

    ReplyDelete
  2. No, he's not, but he is run first, and the only run first quarterbacks that have made it are Vince Young and Michael Vick. Young is oft injured and more often in trouble with his coach (1 playoff win) and Michael Vick had to take two years in jail to figure out how to play football at a consistently high level, so I don't see Cam Newton being a great pro. He's the best college guy in 10 years, but I'm not sure it will work well at the next level. He's definitely a better passer than Tebow.
    On a positive note, Tim Tebow is getting a start this Sunday for the 3-10 Broncos. I bet he leads the best most positive, never has anyone been more dedicated and willful with their team to a 3 TD loss before performance.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Best college guy in 10 years?! He's a junior, and my guess is that he might not come back for his senior year. So I assume you mean he's had the best individual college season in the last 10 years. His stats are amazing, but that seems premature before the championship game. If he chokes against Oregon would you still put this above Vince Young's Heisman-winning-beating-USC season?

    Yeah, the run-first QB is a really bad idea for the NFL. I guess the real question is can Cam turn into the Steve Young/Donovan McNabb style QB that throws first but can use his feet if he needs to?

    As for Tebow, I just hope he chooses to show his dedication and intangibles against an NFL linebacker. I'll send a check to Gooddell myself to pay for the inevitable fine...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ok, he has to win to beat Vince Young, but you should see this guy on offense and the defenses that they have killed. 6 top 25 wins in the regular season. That's insane.
    Vince Young's championship game the greatest performance that I've ever seen by an individual in a game.
    I also assume SEC trumps PAC-10 and Auburn dominates. Maybe I've lived here too long, but I drink the SEC domination Koolaid.

    ReplyDelete